Since the COVID pandemic, younger digital nomads have also begun to flock to the country in increasingly greater numbers. Several neighborhoods in Mexico City have become ground zero for digital nomads, bringing with them the good and bad that comes with a sudden large influx of newcomers. But it’s not just Mexico City: Digital nomads have also settled in cities large and small throughout the country.

So the country is now full of foreigners over 55 and under 35 … but what about those in between? The perception for most people has historically been that, as a foreigner, you can’t raise your kids in Mexico. I remember once hearing a foreign visitor expressing shock that the expat woman she was talking to had given birth to her children in Mexico. The expat sarcastically replied, “Believe it or not, Mexicans have babies too!”

So what about that perception? Is it “confidently wrong”? Is Mexico actually a viable place for foreigners to consider raising and schooling their kids? And if so, where? And at what ages? How is it similar or different from schooling in other countries? And how are expat kids schooled here different than their family and friends back home — socially, culturally and even emotionally?

It is with that background that we bring you the second season of “Confidently Wrong: Raising Expat Kids in Mexico.” Each episode of this season will dive into “confidently wrong” assumptions about raising and schooling kids in Mexico. We will bring you interviews with parents, teachers, administrators and kids. We will share their stories with you and you will hear, in their own words, what the experience was like.

We’re not doing vague hot takes or “Mexico is perfect” soundbites. We’re sharing what people wish they’d known, what surprised them, what was harder than expected, and what ended up being better than they imagined. You will hear it in their own words — how they chose schools, how kids adapted (or didn’t), what community looked like, and what they’d do differently if they started over.

This season is not meant to tell you that raising kids in Mexico is better or worse than in your home country. It is meant to inform, educate, entertain and help ensure that you are not making decisions based on “confidently wrong” assumptions. We have worked hard to bring you a very wide range of perspectives on the topic, and if you’ve ever even considered Mexico with kids, you’ll want to hear these conversations before you decide anything. Check out the first episode (available on Spotify here or YouTube here) in which we frame up what is coming in Season 2 — it’s going to be very fun!

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post Introducing Season 2 of the ‘Confidently Wrong’ podcast: Raising expat kids in Mexico appeared first on Mexico News Daily

Our mission at Mexico News Daily is to be the most balanced and complete source of news and information about Mexico. Day in and day out, we are waging a constant battle against those who are in the “misinformation for clicks” business. Occasionally, we run into someone else trying to show the “real Mexico,” only to find out that the real motivation behind the curtain is to sell real estate, health supplements or something worse. It seems like just about everyone these days is trying to get your attention about something, only to sell you something else.

I get it, it’s the world we live in. But it does highlight the need to make us as consumers (or scollers on social media) more aware. I guess you could say it’s the modern-day version of being offered something free in return for listening to a timeshare presentation. It sounds good at first, but then quickly turns into: Let the buyer beware!

It is with that backdrop that we were intrigued by Steve. Servant Steve lives in Mexico with his family and posts on Instagram, Facebook and TikTok. He creates short videos in which he tells stories about what he sees in Mexico that “they don’t show you” back home. His stories hit a chord with us as they seemed genuine, heartfelt and true. He highlights the preconceived notions of topics as broad as family, faith, raising children, the definition of middle class and personal safety — just to name a few. His message resonated with us as he — like our team at MND — is inspired to show the Mexico they often don’t tell you about. So we reached out to him.

Click on the link below to watch the latest episode of “Confidently Wrong” in which we interview Steve. His story, his motivation, his message and his passion are fascinating. Check it out and get inspired!

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post The Mexico they don’t show you: Confidently Wrong interviews Servant Steve appeared first on Mexico News Daily

Mexico’s previous president, AMLO, inflated growth rates during his term in part with significant federal government spending. From new airports in Mexico City and Tulum, to the new Maya and Interoceanic trains, to the Dos Bocas mega-refinery, the federal government was doing more than its part to prop up growth. The big question many had about these projects was, “Are they one-time growth spurts, or are they medium or long-term growth enablers that will help fundamentally improve future growth prospects for the country?” Infrastructure projects, if well-thought-out, should be medium/long-term growth enablers. But they do take time, and most certainly these projects are not yet helping to provide a pick up in economic growth.

Foreign direct investment announcements continue to hit record highs, but they also take time to impact the economy and sometimes don’t happen at all. The recent increase in the amount of “new” investment dollars in FDI (versus pure reinvestment of profits) has been an encouraging sign. Tourism numbers are up 13% year-to-date (with spending up over 6%), which is great news. But tourism is not big enough to significantly move the country’s total GDP numbers yet.

In the past, exchange rate devaluations of the Mexican peso would often provide a consistent growth spurt. Over a 25 year period and up until the COVID pandemic, the peso has averaged an annual devaluation versus the US dollar of roughly 10%. Given Mexico’s relatively low inflation and low wages, this consistently helped ensure that the cost of doing business or investing in Mexico kept getting cheaper, at least in dollar terms. This could be counted on year after year, and provided a good base case for making investments in the country. But given that the peso has actually strengthened while costs have increased now for five years, the certainty around that long-held assumption is over. So while a significant devaluation of 20% or more in the peso would most certainly provide a growth injection, there have been no indications that one is likely. In fact, the peso has continued to strengthen lately, with it recently hitting 18 month highs against the USD.

With the Trump administration making new and ever-changing tariff threats towards Mexico on a near weekly basis, what is Mexico to do? How can the economy get growing again at or above its potential?

1. The most impactful (albeit not very likely) scenario that could get the economy growing again would be a quick and favorable (for Mexico) outcome on the USMCA negotiations. This would provide clarity for businesses and investors on the role of Mexico in the North American supply chain. Too many companies right now do not have certainty as to whether Mexico going forward will have free trade with the U.S., low tariffs, or perhaps even higher tariffs compared to other countries. With that degree of uncertainty, it seems unlikely that Mexico’s economy can get growing upwards of 3% again.

In the wake of Trump’s tariff chaos, Mexico’s economy needs a rethink: A perspective from our CEO, Part 3

2. Another scenario would be for President Sheinbaum to push through reforms allowing for more foreign investment in the areas of energy extraction, production and distribution (current monopolies held by PEMEX and CFE). These economic segments could and should be significant growth drivers of the economy, yet are currently doing nothing to help. If Sheinbaum was able to use her popularity to push through reform in these areas and demonstrate that Mexico is “open for business” in shale gas production, oil extraction, energy production and distribution (natural gas, solar, wind) — it would spark a massive inflow of investment. Given Mexico’s long history of protectionism in these areas, it would not be an easy task. But given her nearly 70% popularity, if anyone is up to it, it’s Sheinbaum.

3. Governments often look for “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects that can get started right away and quickly impact the economy. Sheinbaum has some of these already started with a significant nationwide highway improvement plan. She is also doubling down on passenger train investments throughout the country. Both are good productivity enablers over the medium term, but will not have a meaningful impact in the short term.

4. Public education continues to be a big issue in Mexico, as I have previously written about here. This in turn impacts labor productivity growth and ultimately is a drag on the economy. Sheinbaum needs to prioritize this issue, perhaps by announcing some public-private partnerships that could accelerate education attainment and results. A real commitment in this area would likely be matched by private investment that could provide increased training programs in higher skill jobs that require the ability to use AI and robotics.

5. Tax policies are often used to accelerate investment and growth. Sheinbaum could announce initiatives ranging from accelerated depreciation of capital equipment investments, special tax treatment for AI and robotics investments, and tax incentives for companies that add new hires and invest in training and upskilling their workforce. All of these would steer private capital into areas that could quickly make an impact on the economy.

6. The Sheinbaum administration could create special incentives and economic development areas to further accelerate the growth of Mexico’s service sector. As I have previously written here, I think that Mexico has tremendous untapped potential in many segments of the service economy. New initiatives, new tax policies, and accelerated government approvals in service sectors like education, senior centers, housing (for Mexicans and expats), health care, wellness and tourism would further diversify the economy away from manufacturing and oil. With the right support, all those sectors could be hitting double-digit growth.

Of course, none of these options are easy. But if Mexico is serious about sustainably growing its economy at or above 3%, and in turn serious about improving the lives of its citizens — not only with minimum wage increases but also actual economic growth — it will have to tackle most of them.

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post Mexico’s economy isn’t growing. What can be done? A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

As 2025 came to a close with the peso touching below 18, we learned that the peso appreciated more in the year against the USD than it ever has in modern history (since 1994 to be exact). Think about that for a minute. Literally no one was expecting the peso to appreciate last year — the average prediction of the “expert analysts” was a depreciation to 21 — and instead it got stronger! At the risk of getting a little wonky, think of all of the events of last year that, in theory, should have caused the peso to weaken in 2025:

1. President Trump’s constant threats against Mexico for everything from drugs, water, immigration, trade and more.

2. President Trump’s “America First” policies, threatening the value proposition of Mexican manufacturing.

3. President Trump’s tariffs against Mexico and in particular the critical automotive, steel and aluminum industries.

4. Record amounts of new investment announcements in the U.S. that, if anything, should have made the USD stronger versus emerging market economies like Mexico.

5. The (I would argue incorrect) rhetoric from the opposition that the newly elected President Sheinbaum was anti-business and had socialist policies that would turn the country into the next Venezuela.

6. Mexico’s 2025 economic growth was terrible, with GDP growing less than 1% for the year versus nearly 3% for the United States and 3% globally.

7. Mexico lowered its interest rates much faster than the U.S., making the peso less attractive compared to other countries that lowered interest rates more slowly. (It is often the rate of change that is more impactful on a currency versus the absolute rate.)

8. Mexico’s inflation rate is higher than that of the U.S.

9. Even the thought of the USMCA trade agreement not being renewed is potentially catastrophic for Mexico.

Any one of these events could have caused the peso to weaken in a typical year, and the peso historically has devalued for less impactful reasons. In fact, the peso has on average devalued against the USD around 10% annually over the past 30 years!

Pros and cons of the ‘superpeso’: A perspective from our CEO

So what is going on here? And what should we expect for 2026? Let’s start with what standard economic theory (which arguably was very wrong in 2025) would tell us about what should happen to the peso in 2026:

1. Mexico’s economy will grow slower than the US economy — downside risk for the peso.

2. Significant USMCA renewal risk (economic tensions) throughout the year — downside risk for the peso.

3. Expansion of the war on drugs to include Mexico (geopolitical tensions) — downside risk for the peso.

4. Mexico’s inflation rate remains higher than the U.S. rate — downside risk for the peso.

5. Mexico’s interest rate continues to be lowered due to slowing economy — downside risk for the peso.

In fact, I don’t see any factors in the short term that (using standard economic theory) would point to a strengthening of the peso in 2026. But of course there is often an important element to exchange rates that don’t follow standard theory.

So what could be the logic around a continued strengthening of the peso (or even maintaining the current rate) this year? Here are a few:

1. Markets and companies globally increasingly recognize that Mexico is critically important to the U.S. as China tensions increase.

2. Faith that the USMCA agreement will be renewed and potentially even strengthen economic ties between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

3. The belief that the U.S. war on drugs could actually benefit Mexico, making it more attractive to investment.

4. Increasing confidence in President Sheinbaum’s policies being pro-growth and business-friendly.

5. The belief that Mexico might begin to open up its energy industry to foreign investment.

Mexico in the past has relied on the constant devaluing of the peso to keep the country competitive and attractive for foreign investment. Those devaluations reliably provided a short-term boost to the economy, but kept the country from making the kinds of investments resulting in long-term growth. 2026 is going to be a key year for Mexico to demonstrate if it is worthy of its strong currency, or if it will fall into the trap of a peso devaluation to juice the economy. Stay tuned … MND will be your front row seat for every tick of the peso. It is going to be fascinating to watch.

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post When will the Mexican peso begin to behave rationally again? A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

What began as a small drug boat getting blown up on Sept. 1 off the Caribbean coast of Venezuela had quickly turned into a steady flow of attacks in both the Caribbean and Pacific. The most recent account is that there have been 36 vessels attacked, with at least 115 people killed. In addition to the boat attacks, there has of course been the U.S. military buildup in the area around Venezuela. Never in recent history have so many U.S. soldiers and military assets been stationed in the region.

Throughout this period, the rhetoric on Mexico has been relatively consistent. President Sheinbaum has continued to emphasize the sovereignty of Mexico and insist that U.S. troops are not acceptable in the country. She recently even went so far as to say that, “The last time the United States came to Mexico with an intervention, they took half of the territory.” President Trump has been consistent in his rhetoric towards Mexico, on more than one occasion insisting that “Mexico is run by the cartels,” while at the same time praising the Sheinbaum administration for the collaboration with the U.S. against the cartels.

Sheinbaum in fact has taken some significant actions against the cartels, and has demonstrated a step change in action compared to her predecessor. AMLO’s “hugs, not bullets” strategy against the cartels clearly was ineffective and insincere. No one can forget AMLO briefly meeting Chapo’s mother in Sinaloa.

But today, everything changed. Sheinbaum’s immediate reaction to the Venezuelan attack was to issue a statement “condemning the military intervention in Venezuela” and citing Article 2, paragraph 4 of the United Nations Charter that reads: “All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” That is a logical and valid reaction, especially given her consistent references to Mexico’s sovereignty.

That being said, the United Nations stood by and did little over the past several decades as first Chávez and then Maduro ruled Venezuela with an iron fist. Corruption was rampant, elections were rigged, and millions of Venezuelans were forced to flee the country in search of a better life. The United Nations and most nations of the world stood silent as millions of Venezuelans were forced to walk through the Darien Gap, as countless stories were told of many of them being robbed, raped or killed in the journey. The millions that ultimately made it to the U.S. border were treated as asylum seekers and welcomed into the country. This led to many communities across the nation having their schools, hospitals, and support organizations overwhelmed as they attempted to support the massive wave of new immigrants into the country. This of course was another key theme of the recent U.S. elections.

El Artículo 2, párrafo 4 de la Carta de las Naciones Unidas dice textualmente:

“Los Miembros de la Organización, en sus relaciones internacionales, se abstendrán de recurrir a la amenaza o al uso de la fuerza contra la integridad territorial o la independencia política de…

— Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (@Claudiashein) January 3, 2026

So the Trump administration finally took action. And in taking action, also said that Mexico, along with Cuba and Colombia could be next. He also once again reiterated to Fox News that Mexico is run by the drug cartels and added that, “Something’s going to have to be done with Mexico.” Is this a threat that should be taken seriously? And if so, what should Mexico do?

Here is my personal take. Not only President Trump, but also Secretary Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ron Johnson and even Secretary Noem have recently commented on the cooperation and collaboration of the Sheinbaum administration in the war on drugs. Clearly this is a completely different tone than what was being said about Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia. The Trump administration has ratcheted up the pressure on Mexico to take action on the cartels, and Mexico has many examples of improved action and results.

I believe that today’s Venezuelan actions will serve as an even larger “stick” to get Mexico to do more, much faster. I also believe that Trump will also use the “carrot” of the upcoming USMCA trade agreement renewal to exert even more pressure on Mexico to quickly produce results. It cannot be forgotten that the U.S. is Mexico’s largest customer, and Mexico is the U.S.’s largest customer. That means alot and obviously isn’t the case with Venezuela, Cuba and Colombia.

What do these results ultimately look like? Look for more cartel leader arrests, more drug seizures, more collaboration on the flow of money, weapons and drugs. And look for the use of drone strikes on Mexican fentanyl labs. This was my “wildcard” prediction for Mexico for 2026 that I think just became a lot more likely today. The drone strikes might be ultimately conducted by Mexico (with behind the scenes support from the U.S. military), but I do believe that they will begin happening sooner rather than later.

I believe that these actions by Mexico will happen, and as a result will prevent any direct U.S. actions or intervention in Mexico. The real question to begin to think about, both in Venezuela and if increased actions take place in Mexico, is what will happen next. In other words, what will the cartels do next? Where will they go? How will they respond? History teaches us that it is not the success of the attack, but rather the lack of a plan after the attack, that often ultimately determines future success. Let’s hope that the U.S. has a comprehensive, well-thought-out plan to address that.

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post In the wake of Venezuela, is Mexico next? A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

1. President Sheinbaum will continue to have a 70%-plus approval rating. Nearly every president sees their approval rating consistently decline during their term; I think Sheinbaum will be an exception as she continues to guide the country through difficult domestic and international issues.

2. Sheinbaum and her team will be successful in renewing the USMCA agreement with the U.S. and Canada in a way that maintains and even strengthens the relationship between the countries. There will be drama, there will be fireworks, but ultimately, the deal will get done.

3. Sheinbaum and her team will continue to make progress against the cartels and on violence in the country. After very limited results for six years under AMLO, a step change in actions and results began in 2025. We will see it continue in 2026. The country and the world will take notice.

4. The Mexican peso will finally start to follow the laws of economics and weaken against the USD. I predict that the peso will devalue at least 10% and finish above 20 pesos to the USD. Why? Slower economic growth, lower interest rates and higher inflation rates will all be contributors.

5. GDP growth, which is predicted to be between 1 and 1.5%, will surprise to the upside. I think 2% is possible, fueled by World Cup tourism spending, government infrastructure spending, help from U.S. growth and foreign direct investment.

How accurate were my 2025 predictions for Mexico? A perspective from our CEO

6. Mexico will make it out of the first round of the World Cup, but lose in the round of 16. Sorry Mexican fans, but I have seen it happen too many times before. That being said, Mexico will be a great host to the games and the world will take notice.

7. Tourism numbers will again hit a record, fueled by World Cup tourism and increased interest and excitement in the country’s many cities and attractions. Becoming a top 5 destination for tourists globally is in sight.

8. Continued tensions globally against China will make Mexico an increasingly attractive location for businesses to invest. As the U.S. receives more investment, Mexico will benefit as well. I think foreign direct investment will again hit a record in 2026.

9. AMLO’s legacy projects will begin to show some increased momentum. The Felipe Ángeles airport in Mexico City, the Dos Bocas refinery, the Interoceanic freight train, the Maya Train and the Tulum airport will all look like less “white elephant” projects than they did in 2025. They will all remain very far from profitability and expected capacity, but the momentum will be positive.

10. Sheinbaum will begin to make a positive dent in the energy industry. After largely ignoring the oil production (Pemex) and energy production (CFE) industries in 2025, she will begin to pressure them to reform and allow increased private investment. It will just be the start, but there will be a clear change in tone.

I will also add one “wild card” prediction. I think there is a strong possibility that there will be at least one drone strike against a fentanyl lab in Mexico. I don’t know if it will be done directly by the Trump administration, in coordination with the Sheinbaum administration, or solely by Mexico — but I think it will happen as the pressure is ratcheted up against the cartels.

What do you think? Do you agree with my predictions? Am I missing something? Please add your thoughts in the comments.

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post My 2026 predictions for Mexico: A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

You can see below how I did on each of them. Please weigh in on the comments and tell me how you think I did and if you agree.

Prediction: President Sheinbaum will remain extremely popular with the Mexican population

Late 2024 polling showed her having an exceptionally high 76% favorability rating in Mexico. I predicted that in 2025, despite a lot of uncertainty and turmoil, she would retain a favorability rating above 70%.

Result: CORRECT!

President Sheinbaum has maintained her exceptionally high approval rating with the most recent poll numbers giving her a favorability rating near or above 70%.

Prediction: President Sheinbaum and President Trump will get along better than expected.

Despite Trump’s highly confrontational style, I predicted that President Sheinbaum would successfully manage the relationship, building a productive and positive working relationship that would surprise many people.

Result: CORRECT!

All indications are that Sheinbaum and Trump have maintained a professional, respectful relationship. The two leaders have spoken by telephone five times and just recently met in person for the first time in the U.S. Despite Trump’s tough talk on Mexico, he has consistently made positive, even flattering comments regarding Sheinbaum.

Trump showed ‘a lot of respect’ in first meeting, says Sheinbaum: Monday’s mañanera recapped

Prediction: The Mexican peso will weaken to above 21 to the US dollar — maybe even 22 by year’s end.

I expected a lot of currency uncertainty throughout the year, and uncertainty tends to strengthen the U.S. dollar and weaken the Mexican peso. USMCA negotiations, foreign direct investment delays, slowing GDP growth in Mexico and a difference in interest rate reductions between the U.S. and Mexico would all contribute to peso weakness, I predicted.

Result: INCORRRECT!

The peso has defied pretty much all expectations by strengthening throughout the year versus the US dollar. Trump’s constant tariff threats against Mexico have somehow not impacted the peso. Mexico’s slow GDP growth rate has somehow not impacted the peso. Mexico’s higher inflation and quicker interest rate reductions somehow have not impacted the peso. Economic theory is somehow not applying to the peso right now.

Prediction: There will be many delays of new foreign direct investment (FDI) into Mexico in 2025, resulting in disappointing FDI numbers for the year.

I expected a drop in foreign direct investment in 2025, followed by growth in 2026 and beyond. Companies would hold off making significant FDI moves in Mexico until there was more clarity around tariff policies and USMCA renewal terms, I predicted.

Result: INCORRECT!

Foreign direct investment announcements hit a record high this year. In addition, the amount of new investment (versus reinvestment of profits) increased this year despite Trump’s tariffs and threats to blow up the USMCA. Go figure.

Prediction: Mexican GDP growth will surprise to the upside, but still be disappointingly low.

Many experts predicted 2025 GDP growth in the 1.1%-1.2% range, below predictions for the U.S. and far below what Mexico could have expected given the nearshoring opportunity. I predicted a number closer to 2% for 2025: better than expected but still way too low.

Result: INCORRECT!

I have a business degree from UW Madison and a Masters from Kellogg at Northwestern, but it sure doesn’t look like it as I got yet another economy/business-related prediction wrong. Mexico GDP growth was terrible this year, with downgrade projections happening throughout the year. Only 1% growth was expected, and the Mexican economy grew less than half of that. It’s hard to fathom that the Mexican peso strengthened, FDI hit record highs, and the economy grew less than 1%. Especially surprising given the nearly 3% growth in the U.S.

After lackluster Q3, OECD trims growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Prediction: Mexico will need to bring its interest rates down more quickly than the United States.

The U.S. would likely have the luxury of being able to pause its interest rate reductions for now and cut less in 2025, I predicted. Mexico was unlikely to have that ability due to a sluggish economy, declining FDI rates and slowing inflation — all factors that would contribute to the depreciation of the Mexican peso, I thought.

Result: CORRECT!

Mexico did in fact bring interest rates down more quickly than the United States as the economy continued to falter. The U.S. reduced rates at a much slower rate. But somehow the peso still appreciated versus the US dollar.

Prediction: Mexico will surprise the world by taking some substantive actions against the drug cartels.

I predicted that 2025 would be a year in which the Mexican government visibly goes on the offensive again against the cartels after six years of a “hugs not bullets” strategy (that arguably failed) by former President López Obrador. Whether that offensive would result in an actual reduction in violence was anyone’s guess, I said.

Result: CORRECT!

Mexico has taken much more visible action against the cartels than in the previous administration. Mexico handed over dozens of cartel leaders to the U.S., allowed CIA drone flights over Mexican territory, and increased arrests and drug seizures. There is still a long way to go, but there has clearly been a change in strategy under Sheinbaum.

Prediction: Mexico will take an increasingly strong stand against Chinese investments in the country.

I advised readers to look out for more tariffs in coordination with the U.S. and Canada, more actions on Chinese counterfeit goods in the country, and more actions against Chinese nationals. That course of action would be in Mexico’s best interest, and could also lead to a more productive USMCA discussion. I also predicted the tidal wave of Chinese cars and car dealerships would slow down significantly, at least for the time being.

Result: CORRECT!

Mexico finally blinked on Chinese investment, people and goods pouring into the country. A just-passed tariff on goods coming from countries without a trade agreement with Mexico will put tariffs of up to 50% on over 1,300 Chinese products. The Chinese government is not happy.

Congress approves new tariffs on goods from China and non-FTA countries

Prediction: Pemex will likely go mostly untouched in 2025, but some high profile green energy investment projects will be announced.

With so many other pressing issues to attend to in 2025, I doubted that President Sheinbaum would have the bandwidth to tackle Pemex. I did expect much more momentum around green energy projects and investments.

Result: CORRECT!

Pemex remains untouched and hemorrhaging money. Sheinbaum’s energy reform policies have thus far been too timid to have any real impact on the market. Policies are still not “investor-friendly” enough to attract private investment, and both Mexican industry and the environment continue to suffer as a result. Some green energy projects have been announced, but they’re a drop in the bucket compared to the potential.

Prediction: Less cynicism and more optimism will take hold on Mexico’s all-in focus on trains.

Both the Maya Train and Interoceanic Train would demonstrate their value, I said, and excitement would build around the newly planned and soon-to-be-constructed routes in the center of the country heading north.

Result: INCORRECT!

Although it is still very early in terms of being able to weigh in on these two mega infrastructure projects, it would be hard to argue that excitement for either one is increasing. A harsh reality seems to be setting in that ridership increases will take much longer, and a return on investment might take decades or longer. This does not make the projects a failure, as the impacts of projects of this scale need to be evaluated over many years. In fact, Sheinbaum’s administration is doubling down on trains with several new projects nationwide. This is a very big bet that will either be the pride and joy or the laughing stock of the country for generations. Only time will tell.

Prediction: Mexico City will continue to get the recognition and visibility it deserves for being one of the great cities of the world.

The city, which had very few tourists in the past, was booming with tourism in 2024. In 2025, I expected to hear more people than ever saying “I had no idea CDMX was such a great city … Who would have ever thought?” (Cue the eye rolling.)

Result: CORRECT!

On pretty much any metric, Mexico City continues to gain momentum as one of the great cities of the world. The world’s top singers want to perform (and eat tacos) there. Sport teams from around the world want to play there. An increasing amount of tourists from around the world want to enjoy the city’s great parks, museums, restaurants, and neighborhoods. It’s a wonderful sight to see.

Prediction: Tourist numbers will continue to hit new records throughout the country.

I predicted that the weakening peso, a strong U.S. economy, the booming cruise industry and lots of new flights would keep tourists coming in record numbers again in 2025.

Result: CORRECT!

Mexico has smashed new records of tourists this year, with a year-to-date 13% increase in international visitors. Lots more Canadians have been coming. Expect another record next year with continued momentum and the World Cup.

In summary, I think that I did OK and in fact scored slightly higher than last year. Eight correct versus four incorrect — and I am losing sleep over how I have gotten the economic ones incorrect!

What do you think? Do you agree with my assessment? How did the year play out compared to what you expected? How did you do with your own predictions for the country? Stay tuned next week as I make my 2026 predictions. I guess you could say I am a glutton for punishment!

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post How accurate were my 2025 predictions for Mexico? A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

• Can Tulum get its groove back?
• Our CEO takes a tour of the Tulum airport
• Why the Tulum airport is inspiring for Mexico’s future
• Investment keeps flooding into Tulum: Is this good or bad?

I think it makes a fascinating case study to observe and learn from on so many levels. In many ways, Tulum provides us insights into the perils and pitfalls of herd mentality and group thinking that is so prevalent on social media today. Allow me to explain.

I have been going every year to Tulum now for 25 years. That much consistency, over that long of a time period, makes me sound old — but also makes me a pretty good authority on the place. Over these 25 years, I have witnessed multiple distinct phases that I will simplify as follows:

• Phase I – Very few people knew about Tulum other than hippies and the locals that lived there.
• Phase II – In addition to hippies, European backpackers and yogis started going.
• Phase III – As more Europeans went, U.S. and Mexican hipsters started going.
• Phase IV – As more U.S. and Mexican hipsters went, lots of tech bros, models and hipsters worldwide started going (peak Tuluminati).
• Phase V – Lots more not-so-hip Americans and Mexicans started going.
• Phase VI – Tech bros, models and hipsters stopped going.
• Phase VII – Many Americans and Mexicans stopped going.

And so here we are, now in the still-being-defined Phase VIII, in which the vast majority of those that at one point hyped up Tulum as the “it place” are now no longer going there and many others are intensely criticizing it.

What’s striking to me is how predictable this pattern has become — I’ve seen it with San Miguel de Allende, Puerto Escondido and now Tulum. The algorithm-driven narrative always follows the same arc: discovery, hype, oversaturation, backlash. Each phase being driven not by on-the-ground reality, but by whatever generated the most engagement — views and clicks.

So now what? Where does Tulum go from here? Last week I spent a week there to check firsthand, get my own sense for where things are going, and explore the trustworthiness of the “Tulum now sucks” narrative that has become so prevalent on social media. I just couldn’t take another person confidently telling me that they had heard Tulum is now ruined. Rather than relying on viral TikToks, Instagram reels or confidently wrong tourists, I wanted to see first hand what the economic indicators, infrastructure development and actual resident experiences would tell me.

Here are some of the key observations from my trip:

1. A few days before I got there, a massive fancy new La Comer grocery store opened in town. This is in addition to the huge new Soriana Hiper and Bodega Aurrera supermarkets that opened last year. Just two years ago, the Chedraui store in town nearly doubled in size and became a Super-Chedraui. Next year, both a Walmart and a new shopping mall will open in town. This is all of course in addition to the recently opened Tulum International Airport and Maya Train which has a stop both in town and at the airport.

2. Tulum is most definitely hurting from a significant decline in the number of tourists, especially during the summer and fall months of this year. Many businesses have shut down and closed, significant numbers of people have lost their jobs and countless new construction projects have been halted. That being said, there were still signs of life everywhere with many new construction projects still continuing.

3. Tourist friendly policies are returning. The AMLO administration created Jaguar National Park, which for a short period of time was charging an eye-popping 500 pesos per person entrance fee, has changed its policies. The park is now free to walk in (driving in costs 60 pesos per person if you are Mexican or a resident). The staff treats you well and smiles when you arrive. Parking within the park is free. The restaurants and beach clubs in the park don’t charge a minimum consumption fee (and proudly tell you so).

Tourism Ministry reverses Tulum mayor’s restrictions, re-opens free beach access 

4. Prices are coming back down to earth in many establishments (but not all). The cost of parking is down by half or more in many places. Minimum consumption fees at non-park beach clubs are down significantly. Restaurant prices in some areas are even down. Places seem to actually want your business versus before when entry seemingly was often based on good looks and connections.

5. “Normal human beings” are returning to the beach. Families, retirees and locals of all economic classes are using it again. I saw local boys playing beach soccer, local girls playing beach volleyball, people practicing yoga and local couples making out at sunset — all the kind of normal signs of life that I hadn’t seen in years.

6. The beach vibe is becoming more Mexican again. Gone are the “Zimbabwe tiger prawns,” “Alaskan king crab legs” and “Australian beef” dishes of US $100 or more that I used to see on menus. An increasing number of restaurants are again serving local Mexican food: tacos, guacamole, fresh local fish. Gone are many of the snooty model-like waitresses from around the world — back are smiling, friendly local staff. Gone are many of the techno and dance music DJ scenes, back are places playing Caribbean or Mexican music — both live and streamed.

On our last evening, I was getting gas at a local station and found myself talking to a young woman named Veronica who was filling our tank. She had moved from rural Chiapas to Tulum three years ago. I asked her how she was doing.

“It’s been hard on all of us,” she said. “We are really hoping for a strong January.” I asked her how her family has been coping with the downturn, and she said “we have had enough to eat, so we have all been ok.” She seemed embarrassed, ashamed as she said it. That was hard to see. I couldn’t help thinking about how she had picked up and moved from her quiet hometown with the idea of living a better life in Tulum. Now that she is here, going back is no longer an easy option.

Social media is often far too quick to lift up a place (or a person, or a brand), only to then quickly pivot and move on. And far too often, the goal is to get more views, more clicks and more ad revenue. It’s more important than ever for us to keep this in mind, as there are real people that are impacted by the lifting up and tearing down of places by social media. People like Veronica and her family that followed the dream of a better life to Tulum. People like Veronica who have seen their dream taken away by social media influencers wanting to now divert clicks to the next location that they have “discovered” or by others who benefit from the narrative that “Tulum now sucks.” The social media influencer quickly moves on, but Veronica and her family cannot.

As we left Tulum, I said to my wife, “How ironic is it that when Tulum was amazing, hardly anyone knew about it. Then, when Tulum became too crowded, too expensive and too full of itself, the world raved about how amazing of a place that it had become. Now that Tulum is in many ways returning to its beautiful, magical old self again, it is being called terrible by the next wave of social media influencers looking for clicks.”

Ironic indeed. And a very good reminder to get informed by reliable sources and get out and discover places for yourself versus letting some social media influencer tell you where to go and what to do. As a yoga teacher friend of ours, Mariana, who has lived in the area for over a decade said to us with a smile on our last morning: “I have no doubt that Tulum is coming back — it is too special of a place not to.”

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post Social media herd mentality, Tulum edition: A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

Many Americans might point to the minimum wage in the United States and say that it really isn’t that relevant. In the U.S. they are right, as only an estimated 1.3% of workers actually make the minimum wage. However, in Mexico, the situation is far different. Recent reports indicate that as many as 40% of Mexican workers actually make the minimum wage. Remember that Mexico still has a very large share of its workforce, over 50%, working informally. In other words, minimum wage changes make a big difference for Mexican workers.

Charted: Hours Worked vs. Salaries in OECD Countries 📊

This graphic by @genuine_impact is part of Visual Capitalist’s Creator Program, featuring work from the world’s top data-driven talent ✅https://t.co/CdT70t5ufi pic.twitter.com/6heJznLPEJ

— Visual Capitalist (@VisualCap) November 26, 2023

The second annoucement from Sheinbaum was regarding the work week. Today, the standard Mexican work week is still a 6 day, 48 hour week. Compared to other OECD countries, Mexicans work more hours per year than any other country! Until recently, Mexican workers also had relatively few holidays and vacation days compared to workers in many other countries. Under AMLO, the country doubled the amount of statuatory minimum paid vacation time for workers with at least one year of service from 6 to 12 days.

All of this is undoubtably good for workers — higher pay and more time to spend with families and friends. However, there is a downside to all of this. If economic policy was as simple as raising wages and reducing hours for workers, every country would be racing to do so. In order for these worker friendly initiatives to ultimately succeed, Mexico must also increase labor force productivity. If that doesn’t happen, the net effect of all of these initiatives will be for Mexican labor to become more expensive to companies while in turn making companies less competitive. Increased labor costs must be accompanied by increased worker productivity in a healthy company and healthy country.

So how has Mexico been doing on this measure? In summary, not well. A recent World Bank productivity study notes that Mexico’s GDP per worker has shown negative or very weak growth over the last decade. Work by OECD economists finds that the average annual labor-productivity growth in Mexico over the past decade has been negative at -0.6%, well below the OECD average. Mexico cannot become a wealthy country by simply increasing wages — to do so, it must find a way to increase both wages and productivity.

There are those who would argue that Mexico’s minimum wage is still so low that it should not make a difference to businesses, but that is just simply not true. If labor costs increase without productivity improvements, local companies will slow down or stop new investments. Multinational companies will consider investing in other countries where the wage-to-productivity relationship is more favorable. As we move to a world of increasing investment in AI and robotics, where will that leave the untrained/unskilled Mexican worker? I have previously written about this in a 3 part series on the need for Mexico to begin pivoting its economy to other areas here.

In the wake of Trump’s tariff chaos, Mexico’s economy needs a rethink: A perspective from our CEO, Part 1

In many areas, the private sector is doing its part. Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have announced significant investments to improve cloud computing resources in the country. Just this week Amazon annouced that nearly 40% of Mexican companies are now using AI. That will be essential to help Mexico’s white collar workers stay competitive. Countless other companies are increasing their in-house training capabilities to upskill (and make more productive) their factory workforces as well.

That being said, Mexico’s public educational system continues to not do its part. Mexico ranks near the bottom of the OECD countries on both high school completion and college-level education. Only one-fifth of Mexican adults aged 25-64 have graduated from college, ranking it 43rd out of 47 countries with data. Out of countries where high school is the highest level of education, Mexico is a dismal 43th out of 46 countries for low attainment. In PISA exams, just 34% of 15 year old Mexican students attained at least level 2 proficiency in mathematics (compared with an OECD average of 69%). In reading, just 53% of Mexican students attained at least a level 2 proficiency compared to an OECD average of 74%. This ranks Mexico 34th out of 37 OECD countries in reading (a statistic that is motiving us to get MND Kids in Mexican schools as well!).

I applaud and celebrate the efforts of the private sector to upskill and train the Mexican workforce — in many cases, they are doing their part. I also appreciate the efforts by the federal government to bring better conditions to the workforce; higher minimum wages, better working conditions, shorter work weeks, more holiday and vacation time are all valid and important issues. The new levels being legislated are not unreasonable — this is not a France-type situation. That being said, if the government doesn’t start to make some significant progress on the public education side of the equation, Mexico is at a real and serious risk of continued economic stagnation that will ultimately result in less job creation, more unemployment, and a real missed opportunity. President Sheinbaum and her administration must make this issue a more urgent priority!

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post Mexico is becoming friendlier to labor, but there’s one big problem: A perspective from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily

So are these pieces of advice still relevant today? And if so, why? What’s so different and unique about water in Mexico?

I have worked in the water business for over 15 years in Mexico and have seen hundreds of water systems in businesses across the country. Although I am not a technical water expert, I do have a perspective that I think can help people make sense of the water situation in the country.

Other than crime issues, I would say that water is the biggest concern that I hear people talking about. Some people ask about the impact of nearshoring or new factories on the water supply. Others lament new home construction and the lack of water availability. And still others worry about all of the greenhouses popping up in many parts of the country, using precious water to grow crops for export to relatively water-rich countries like the U.S. and Canada.

With so much to learn on the topic, MND has created a separate content section called “Water in Mexico” and our site has constant coverage on the issues facing the country. You can see the articles here.

I also have written several articles with my perspective on the issue:

• How will nearshoring impact water?
• Microsoft and water scarcity in Mexico
• Siemens shows how industry can help solve Mexico’s water and energy challenges

In this week’s episode of MND’s Confidently Wrong podcast, we tackle the issue of Water in Mexico. Not just the dos and don’ts of drinking water, but also the things you need to know if you are looking at buying or building a house in most parts of the country. Water is not a straightforward issue in Mexico, so it’s important to be educated and informed on the topic.

Check out this week’s episode here on our Youtube channel or on Spotify here.

Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.

The post Confidently Wrong about Water in Mexico: A new podcast from our CEO appeared first on Mexico News Daily